Obama Ally: Dem Majority Is History If Health Reform Fails

ABC News' Teddy Davis reports:

A top Obama ally predicted Wednesday in an interview with ABC News that Democrats will lose their congressional majority in next year's midterm elections if they fail to put a health-care reform bill on President Obama's desk.

“I think we're talking losing control of Congress,” said Andy Stern, the president of the Service Employees International Union. “[The failure of health-care reform] would totally empower Republicans to kill all change.”

“It's hard to imagine the Democrats convincing the public that Republicans are to blame for health-care reform going down when the Democrats have such large majorities,” he added. “After last year's promise of change, voters will start feeling buyer's remorse.”

Stern, who was invited to sit with the Obama family during the president's inaugural parade, is watched closely on health-care reform not only because of the labor muscle he wields as the head of the 2-million member SEIU but also because of the effort he has made to work with business groups: in 2007, he started “Divided We Fail,” a coalition which joined SEIU and AARP with the Business Roundtable and National Federation of Independent Business to promote the general principle of universal health care coverage.

Stern did not tie his 2010 prediction to the inclusion of a public option in the final bill. He did, however, warn that dropping a public option could “unravel” support for the more modest package of insurance reforms that President Obama began emphasizing last week.

“If there is going to be a mandate without real cost control and without an adequate subsidy, it's hard for us to go to our members and say, 'you have to buy insurance even though we know you can't afford it',” said Stern.

Since lawmakers have already decided not to pursue strict regulations on insurance premium increases, Stern said that a public option is the only real cost control mechanism on the table. Without the cost control provided by a public plan, Stern says it would be difficult for SEIU to support an individual mandate which would require all adults to purchase health insurance.

If support for an individual mandate collapses, it will become difficult for the Democrats to help those with pre-existing conditions who are currently denied coverage in the individual market. The insurance industry has made clear throughout the process that it will fight guaranteed issue and community rating tooth and nail if it does not get a new federal requirement that all adults purchase insurance. The insurance industry says that an individual mandate must go hand-in-hand with guaranteed issue and community rating because customers will otherwise avoid buying insurance until they are sick.

In addition to viewing a public option as vital to cost control, Stern is also concerned about the reach of the subsidies that are being proposed and suggested that they will be inadequate if members of the Senate Finance Committee were to limit them to 300 percent of poverty.

As for the idea of creating a co-op instead of a government insurance option, Stern said it was a non-starter.

“There is no way that a co-op can compete with Aetna or United American,” said Stern.

He signaled that a more acceptable compromise might be to create a public option whose creation is only triggered if certain circumstances are met.

“It's obviously better than no public option,” said Stern.

While Stern left the impression that a public option with a trigger was a more acceptable compromise than a co-op, he stopped short of actually endorsing the trigger approach.

While warning of grave consequences if the Democrats fail on health-care reform, Stern said that he is optimistic that Senate Democrats will find a way forward, possibly with the help of Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R).

To help Democrats get the votes that they need, Stern is prepared to use SEIU resources to pressure recalcitrant Democrats in Congress if progress is not made by Sept. 15, the deadline which Senate Finance Committee negotiators have set for themselves.

For now, however, he is holding his fire against fellow Democrats since the president has signaled through his staff that he does not want Democrats shooting at one another.

“We call it: 'helping the president be successful,'” said Stern with a smile when asked if he was willing to pressure fellow Democrats. “I don't think it will be necessary. I think Democrats find a way forward in the Senate when they stop believing that they're going to get [Iowa Sen. Chuck] Grassley and [Wyoming Sen. Mike] Enzi.”

Visit ABC News' special section on health care.

Menendez Aims to Defy History

ABC News’ David Chalian reports: Only one Democratic president since Franklin Roosevelt has picked up Senate seats for his party in the first-term midterm election. Sen. Bob Menendez, who as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is charged with bringing Democrats across that critical 60-vote threshold in the Senate, seems to believe his party is poised to defy history.

The 2010 map does appear to favor the Democrats at this early stage in the cycle as Republicans will have to play more defense than offense in large part due to announced retirements in at least four key battleground states — Florida, Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire.

But it may not be as easy for Menendez to match his predecessor’s track record. Democrats did not lose a single Senate seat in the 2006 and 2008 cycles with Sen. Chuck Schumer at the helm of the DSCC. Perhaps that’s why Menendez doesn?t appear compelled to come up with a new Democratic line of attack.

Although former President George W. Bush may be settling into his Texas retirement, Menendez made clear today that Democrats still plan to use their anti-Bush messaging of cycles past.

“I think we’ve seen over the last week what Republicans are doing. They are basically sticking to their old brand, the Bush brand. They voted this week to do nothing. And that is largely George W. Bush’s signature approach to the economy — certainly in the midst of great challenges — largely to do nothing until it was too late. And it seems to me they still don’t get it,” said Menendez.

Republicans have been highlighting their alternative stimulus proposals to push back against the “do nothing” straw man argument Democrats, including President Obama, have been hammering this week. And it may not prove as helpful as he hopes for Menendez and his candidates to be backward looking toward President Bush when formulating their message frames for the cycle.

And barring a major unexpected event, the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections will likely greatly depend on the state of the economy and if an Obama-era recovery is truly in full bloom.

Menendez boasted to reporters at a press briefing at Democratic National Committee headquarters on Thursday that every Democratic incumbent up for reelection is running. One potential area of vulnerability for Democrats are the handful of appointed senators now serving in the Senate due to vacancies created by President Obama’s victory and his appointments.

Sen. Roland Burris, appointed in a highly controversial move by ousted former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has not yet said if he intends to seek a full elected term of his own in 2010.

Should Burris seek a full term, national Republicans believe the circus-like atmosphere surrounding his appointment will turn the Illinois seat into a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP. And although Burris and another appointed senator, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, may have to ward off tough Democratic primary challenges before getting to the November 2010 ballot, Menendez indicated they will have the backing of the DSCC in their primaries as well as the general election.

“I would assume that any of the appointees who decide to run will have the support of the committee,” said Menendez.

In addition to targeting open seats in competitive states, Menendez mentioned potential targets of opportunity to defeat Republican incumbents in Louisiana (Sen. David Vitter), North Carolina (Sen. Richard Burr), Kentucky (Sen. Jim Bunning) and Pennsylvania (Sen. Arlen Specter).

Specter, the moderate Republican from Pennsylvania, was one of only three Republicans to cross the aisle and support President Obama’s stimulus package. His support for the bill was critical for President Obama to score the first major victory of his presidency.

When Menendez was asked if the White House political operation is on board with the DSCC’s targeting Specter for defeat, his reply was unapologetic.

“We are going to be working with the White House across this entire map. I’m sure that President Obama and those who advise him clearly understand the value of finally getting over 60 votes in the United States Senate after what they have gone through. And we will make collective judgments about how best to achieve that,” he said.

Obama Ally Seeks to Make History in Alabama

ABC News’ Teddy Davis reports:

Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., announced Friday that he is running for governor of Alabama.

The four-term Democratic congressman, who got to know President Barack Obama at Harvard Law School, would be Alabama’s first African-American governor.

“[W]e do not have to judge our future in Alabama by our past,” said Davis. “. . . there was a time when what I am about to try to do seemed as inconceivable as the idea of a Kenyan and a Kansan with Confederate roots joining to give birth to an American President.”

Davis, who chaired Obama’s Alabama campaign and helped him carry the state’s primary on Feb. 5, announced his gubernatorial bid at a 1:00 pm ET press event in Birmingham, Ala., an area he represents in Congress.

He is slated to hold a 6:00 pm ET press conference outside of the state archives building in Montgomery, Ala., a location near the Alabama Capitol where the Confederacy was born.

Davis was one of a handful of members of Congress who was invited by Obama to watch the Super Bowl at the White House earlier this month.

His full remarks are available on his political Web site.

ABC News’ Ann Compton contributed to this report.