The Toll: Tragedy freezes politics — and starts new debates

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

We're back to discussions of war and peace. And the toll of war comes into sharper focus.

The awful news out of Fort Hood, Texas, is a story that will consume all the political oxygen for a while.

It will replace it with — depending on the circumstances that develop — fresh discussions about the physical and mental costs of war, of race and religion in the armed services, and of the nature of the sacrifices the nation asks of its troops.

It comes as President Obama ponders some of the biggest foreign-policy challenges of his time in office. Troop levels have been and will continue to be a major part of that discussion.

And now the nation wants to know as much as it can learn about what that means for those on the receiving end of presidential orders.

Coming Friday, per ABC's Jake Tapper: “White House officials tell ABC News that President Obama will visit with wounded soldiers tomorrow at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. The trip was scheduled before the incident today at Fort Hood, officials said.”

Politico's Carol E. Lee: “It is Obama's first visit to Walter Reed as president. It comes as the president is weighing a decision on a new strategy in Afghanistan that could involve committing tens of thousands of more troops to the conflict.”

As for the suspected shooter: “He was mortified by the idea of having to deploy,” Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan's cousin, Nader Hasan tells The New York Times. “He had people telling him on a daily basis the horrors they saw over there.”

“Apparently he became very disgruntled with the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan, voiced that to one of his colleagues,” Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told Brian Ross on ABC's “Good Morning America” Friday.

Said President Obama, late Thursday afternoon: “It's difficult enough when we lose these brave Americans in battles overseas. It is horrifying that they should come under fire at an army base on American soil.”

Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey and Army Secretary John McHugh will be at Fort Hood Friday.

As we learn more about what happened on the base: “Fort Hood, the Texas military base that was the scene of a mass shooting Thursday, has been hard hit by the growing strain on the Army from multiple combat deployments — with its personnel suffering the highest number of suicides among Army installations since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003,” Ann Scott Tyson reports in The Washington Post. “After many years of lengthy war zone rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Army personnel are experiencing record rates of suicide, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and other mental health problems, as well as worsening alcohol and drug abuse.”

Health care takes a back seat, for the day: The president's visit with the Democratic caucus has been pushed back from Friday to Saturday, the day of the House vote.

When it's health care time again, remember that the Democrats picked up two key allies: the AARP, and the American Medical Association. (Endorsements may not matter too much, but if either or both of these groups lined up on the others side, what would we be saying about the bill's prospects?)

Another endorsement coming, this one directly from the White House: “The White House will today issue a Statement of Administration Policy today endorsing the health care reform legislation from House Democrats,” ABC's Jake Tapper reports. “It will not be a signal that the president favors the House bill over the one from Senate Democrats, officials say.”

In getting the votes, the buttons they've got to push will be on the other side of lukewarm: “House Democratic leaders were struggling Thursday to contain uprisings on the hot-button issues of abortion and immigration that have left them little margin for error as they attempt to push through a massive health-care reform bill this weekend,” Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery write in The Washington Post.

The deciders? “The fate of the bill itself rests on the shoulders of a new generation of Democrats whose young careers will be defined, in part, by the votes they cast Saturday — votes sure to be used against many of them in 2010,” Politico's Patrick O'Connor reports.

“When asked if she had the 218-vote House majority needed to pass the bill, [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi responded, ‘We will,' ” per the San Francisco Chronicle.

“Democratic vote counters, working as thousands of conservative protesters chanted ‘kill the bill' outside the Capitol and later swarmed through Congressional office buildings, said they did not yet have the necessary 218 confirmed supporters,” Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn write in The New York Times. “Democratic leaders said they expected to face a series of unusually difficult procedural votes before the vote on the bill itself. Party leaders said they were trying to shape a preliminary vote to allay concerns of anti-abortion Democrats demanding that public money not be used to pay for abortions or go to insurance plans that cover abortions.”

What the endorsements mean: “The endorsement by the AARP was prized because the seniors lobby is an electoral powerhouse and it has been skeptical of the Democrats' proposals to reduce spending on Medicare. The AMA's support was a marked turnaround for a group that played a leading role in stymieing past efforts to change the health care system,” Janet Hook and Noam N. Levey report, in the Chicago Tribune.

What they don't mean: “The endorsements did nothing to ease the concerns of House Republicans or conservative protesters who descended on the Capitol grounds Thursday to denounce the nearly 2,000-page bill,” Jennifer Haberkorn writes for the Washington Times. “Thousands carried posters reading ‘Don't Tread on Me' amid accusations by some in the crowd that Democrats are promoting a health care system that would resemble that of Nazi Germany.”

“Dozens of buses, organized by the conservative group Americans for Prosperity carried grassroots activists and concerned citizens from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and North Carolina. Organizers said activists became energized after Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey Tuesday,” ABC's Devin Dwyer reports.

In the Senate, the power of 60 as the power of one: “As Democratic leaders enter the intensive phase of their drive to pass health legislation, they must satisfy 60 Mary Landrieus in the Senate — every Democrat and the two Democratic-friendly independents, each with individual priorities — as they try to hold together a fragile coalition with no room for error,” The Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid writes. “And that has only become more complicated as Democrats from conservative states puzzle over what to make of Republican victories Tuesday in governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey.”

Adjusting to that power: “In the wake of Tuesday's vote Democrats have made hay of a GOP civil war, but all is not well on their side either. Move-On and Democracy of America are putting up $3.5 million to fund primary challenges against any Democratic Senator who blocks an up or down vote on the public option,” ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports. “Liberal democrats have been at war with centrist democrats throughout the health care debate.”

Consequences: “Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races may make some congressional Democrats more leery of backing key elements of President Barack Obama's agenda because of the political price they could pay,” Bloomberg's Jonathan Salant writes.

Kim Strassel, in her Wall Street Journal column: “A lot of Democrats are getting a sneaky suspicion Mrs. Pelosi is willing to sacrifice their seats on the altar of liberal government health care. Combined with the election results and Mr. Obama's falling poll numbers, this is no recipe for loyalty. Hello, tipping point. Hello, even crazier Washington.”

Peggy Noonan: “What happened Tuesday isn't a death knell, but it is a fire alarm: Something's wrong, fix it, change course. Show humility. Bow to the public.”

And if the alarm isn't heard? “If the president — opposed by a majority of Americans, with almost no support from the other party — imposes an ideologically divisive health reform, it will smack of radicalism, reinforce polarization, and may cede the ideological center to Republicans for years to come,” Michael Gerson writes in his Washington Post column.

Picking up Tuesday's pieces: “Faced with the choice of running as an unapologetic Democrat in a state trending toward his party or keeping his distance from Washington in the fashion of a generation of Southern Democrats, Creigh Deeds tried to do both,” Politico's Jonathan Martin reports. “The result: the worst drubbing a Virginia gubernatorial candidate has received since 1961. As Democrats try to glean lessons from Tuesday's election losses, Deeds's case offers a vivid example of the difficulties that their candidates from Republican-leaning or swing states will face heading into the midterm elections.”

Iowa time — already: “Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will make his first Iowa trip as a potential presidential candidate tomorrow to deliver a speech, fueling speculation he is preparing to run,” per Bloomberg's John McCormick. “Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in the state that holds the nation's first presidential caucus a day later, while former New York Governor George Pataki is scheduled to stop there on Nov. 10. Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, also is considering an Iowa visit.”

So we've got our split Democrats — what about the Republicans?

The big tent — shrinking. RNC Chairman Michael Steele, on Republicans who run in 2010 supporting the president on health care or stimulus spending: “Candidates who live in moderate to slightly liberal districts have got to walk a little bit carefully here, because you do not want to put yourself in a position where you're crossing that line on conservative principles, fiscal principles, because we'll come after you,” Steele said on ABCNews.com's “Top Line” Thursday.

He couldn't have been talking about … “Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) embrace of President Obama's economic stimulus package is continuing to dog the moderate Republican's bid for the U.S. Senate,” per ABC's Teddy Davis. “[Wednesday], Crist told CNN that he never endorsed the stimulus and that he was simply trying to get the best deal for Florida given that the stimulus was headed for passage in Washington. Now the anti-tax Club for Growth is launching a television ad in Florida aiming to ‘set the record straight.' ”

A tough course correction: “Facing a primary challenge from the conservative wing of the Republican Party, Crist appears to be trying to rewrite history,” Aaron Sharockman reports in the St. Petersburg Times. “But there are mountains of evidence that he not only supported the stimulus, but sang its praises.”

“Ever since the Republican's support of the Democratic plan outraged conservatives, Crist has tried to steer a middle course over his stance on the federal spending bill — but now his explanations are becoming extremely nuanced as his Republican U.S. Senate opponent, Marco Rubio, has hammered him as being a President Obama lackey,” The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo writes.

On the air, in New York State: “The opening line of a new television ad by New York Gov. David Paterson (D) is ‘some say I shouldn't be running for governor,' ” per ABC's Teddy Davis. “Left unsaid is that the someone is President Obama.”

Coming up on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” Sunday: RNC Chairman Michael Steele and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine join Stephanopoulos in studio at the Newseum. The roundtable: George Will, Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts, Donna Brazile, and Frank Luntz.

The Kicker:

“I see this package as a pragmatic, commonsense opportunity to move forward.” — Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., on the stimulus package, in February.

“I didn't endorse it.” — Crist, on the stimulus package, in November.

For up-to-the-minute political updates check out The Note's blog . . . all day every day:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/

Will Health Care Bill Raise Taxes? Finance Committee Debates

ABC News Z. Byron Wolf reports: Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee have taken delight this morning in pointing out that if Democrats can enact a health carereform bill that mandates Americans buy health insurance or pay a fine, they are, by definition, enacting a new tax that would break President Obama’s campaign pledge.

And they have taken the opportunity to read Sen. Obama’s pledge as he was running for the White House.

GOP Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho, quoting Obama, said, “If you're a family making less than $250,000 a year, my plan will not raise your taxes — not your income taxes, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains tax.”

Sen. John Ensign of Nevada quoted a different riff on the same sentiment.

“But let me be perfectly clear,” he said, quoting candidate Obama. “If your family makes less than $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase one single dime.”

Granted, the penalty for not obtaining health insurance would be a penalty and could be avoided by purchasing insurance, but the effect of the bill– the government exacting a fee from uninsured families who make less than $250,000 — cannot be denied.

Republicans have offered several amendments today that would exempt families making less than $250,000 from the individual mandate to buy health insurance that is at the core of the reform bill.

“If we want to keep the president's promise of not raising taxes by one single dime,” said Ensign, the pledge should be a part of the reform bill.

“We need to settle down and find ways of living within the promises that have been made,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

The author of the bill, Max Baucus, D-Mont.,was frustrated at times, arguing against the amendments.

“If we're serious about this, we have to have shared responsibility,” Baucus said, raising his voice. He called the amendments not serious and designed simply to send a message by Republicans about taxes. They would have the effect, said Baucus, of gutting the provisions in the bill that keep health reform from adding to the deficit.

Baucus had lowered the penalty in half at the outset of the markup. A family of four making more than four times the poverty level– about $88,000– would have to pay a fine of $1,900 for not having insurance. The penalty is lower for families making less money.

Other amendments, also turned back, would have scaled back an excise tax Baucus would place on insurance companies that offer high-value “Cadillac” insurance plans. This is a back door to taxing the people who receive those plans, which often include no co-payment and are thought to drive up the cost of health care. And Republicans argued that insurance companies would simply pass the excise tax along to people, many of them union members, who receive the plans.

Baucus had raised the value of the plans that would be taxed at the outset of the markup and exempted many people in public service who receive them.

The amendments were repelled with largely party line votes. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., who faces a tough reelection fight in 2010, sided with Republicans.

This is the seventh day of the markup. Tomorrow, it will become the longest markup staffers on the committee can find.

There probably will not be a final vote on the health reform bill in the Senate Finance Committee until next week, when the CBO can come up with its best guess cost estimate. We are entering the final stretch of the amendment process, which Baucus predicted would end either late Thursday or Friday.

UPDATE: Eagle-eyed Republicans point out that Baucus’ own bill refers to the penalty for not having insurance under an individual mandate as an excise tax. Check out page 29 HERE.

White House Press Secretary RobertGibbstoday referred to the tax as more like a speeding ticket.

The IRS says an excise tax is what is paid on something like motor fuel.

But the point remains that health reform will leave people who make less than $250,000 paying a new tax to the government. It's clear that Democrats and the White House are comfortable living with that if they can enact health care reform.

Politics Live: Congress Debates Stimulus

The House of Representatives debates President Barack Obama’s $825 billion stimulus package. But, despite GOP opposition, the train has left the station.

At the White House today, the president acknowledged the skepticism felt by some across the aisle, adding “I understand that skepticism, which is why this recovery plan will include unprecedented measures that will allow the American people to hold my Administration accountable.”

Tune into Wednesday’s edition of Politics Live for more analysis from ABC News’ political team.