House Dem Campaign Chief Sets Expectations for NY-20

ABC News’ David Chalian Reports: One major task for both national parties heading into Tuesday’s special House election in upstate New York has been to set expectations low enough to mitigate any damage from a loss or enhance the breathlessness in the coverage of a victory.

The executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — the campaign arm for House Democrats — attempted to set the bar as low as possible on Tuesday. “This is a Republican district to start,” Jon Vogel told us on ABCNEWS.COM’s “Top Line.” “There are 70,000 more Republicans than Democrats so the math clearly favors them to begin with, and when you look at the breakout of this district as well, it’s a very rural exurban district. Fifty-five percent of the district is considered rural, so this is not your typical Northeast suburban district,” he added.

Of course, what was left out of his description were the three DCCC staffers that have been on the ground working feverishly on Democrat Scott Murphy’s campaign for the last couple of months and the more than $2 million Democrats and their allies have helped pump into the district on pro-Murphy television ads, direct-mail pieces, and robocalls.

“At one point it went from a 21-point gap [in favor of the Republican] to a 4-point race [in favor of the Democrat] just the other day, so it’s really a tossed ball right now,” Vogel continued.

Despite Mr. Vogel’s efforts, if the Democrats fail to hold on to a seat already in their column in this first electoral test for the party in the Obama era, it will certainly give the Republicans the rallying cry they so clearly need. It may also cause a lot of vulnerable Democratic members of the House to wonder just how much President Obama can help them or how willing he is to do so as their campaigns approach.

ABC News’ John Berman recently spent some time in the 20th congressional district in New York and joined us on “Top Line” to offer his clever insights and defend his abysmal NCAA bracket.

Polls close at 9:00 pm ET and once the votes are counted, the national parties will move from expectations setting to the spin wars.

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